Predicting Mosquito-Borne Disease Outbreaks in Mauritius

Rising global temperatures are expanding the reach of mosquito-borne diseases, creating significant public health challenges, especially for small island nations such as Mauritius. Researchers from the Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine (AITHM) are tackling this issue by developing software to predict future outbreaks on the island.

Mauritius: A Case Study

AITHM PhD candidate Mohabeer Teeluck, supervised by Professor Emma McBryde, is central to this effort. Mr. Teeluck, a native of Mauritius, understands the local context well. While not traditionally endemic, diseases like dengue have caused cyclical outbreaks. Recently, imported cases of chikungunya and lymphatic filariasis have surged post-COVID, raising concerns about endemicity. A major flood in January 2024 preceded the island's largest dengue outbreak (over 6,000 cases), highlighting the link between climate events and disease. The Asian tiger mosquito and the southern house mosquito are the primary vectors.

Developing Country-Specific Models

Mr. Teeluck's research studies how temperature, rainfall, and humidity affect these mosquito populations, noting the relationship isn't always straightforward. Professor McBryde stresses the need for bespoke models, as findings from one country don't easily transfer, and outcomes can be unpredictable. The Mauritian models also incorporate crucial factors like travel patterns and the effects of urbanization, including population shifts inland.

Data-Driven Forecasting

Weather data support was provided by OpenWeather; through its Student and Healthcare Initiative, Mr. Teeluck received several bulk data downloads for his modelling work. Access to comprehensive weather datasets, like those available through OpenWeather's Historical Products Collection, is fundamental for validating environmental health models. The research employs machine learning alongside mechanistic models and benefits from technical collaboration with CIRAD, the French agricultural research centre.

Enhancing Preparedness

Expected to conclude by early 2027, the research aims to generate accurate forecasts for potential outbreaks in Mauritius. "Knowing when a future outbreak was expected would provide the government and community with more time to be better prepared," Mr. Teeluck stated. The findings are planned for implementation with the Mauritius Ministry of Health and Wellness. This research exemplifies how targeted modelling can strengthen disease surveillance and preparedness.

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