Pressing Changes to Olive Oil

“The combination of olive oil, garlic and lemon juice lifts the spirits in winter.”- Yotam Ottolenghi

Olive oil is used around the world to bring life and flavor to a wide range of foods, and, similar to wine, comes in a wide range of varieties and flavors. It also has a number of other uses, including in soaps, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and even traditional lamps. It is an ancient liquid, with olives that originated in Asia Minor reportedly being collected by Neolithic people during the 8th millennium BC.

Researchers excavating the ancient city of Herculaneum, close to Naples, have discovered that olive oil played a significant role in the lives of the ancient Romans, providing an estimated 20% of all the calories consumed. It was the main source of fat, and was also used to store seasonal foods for consumption later. Although this level of olive oil consumption may seem extremely high by today’s standards, it is corroborated by Romans historians, such as Pliny. In Egypt, at around 2000 BC, the trade in olive oil was an important element to the ancient economy, with the oil being imported from Crete and Syria. Traditionally, it was said that the Mediterranean ends where the olive tree stops growing.

The Modern Olive Oil industry

In the modern world, during the period 2016 to 2021, world production of olive oil was 3.1 million metric tons, with Spain producing 44% of world production. The next largest producers were Italy, Greece, Tunisia, Turkey and Morocco. San Marino has the largest per capita consumption of olive oil globally, with each person averaging an impressive 22 kg per year.

The Spanish olive crop covers 14% of the country's land agricultural area, with a single tree absorbing about 30 Kg of Co2 per year, helping curb the effect of climate change.

Olive trees and Climate

Although olive trees are often synonymous with being resilient to hot weather, they are still susceptible to increased temperatures and seasonal weather variations. Unseasonably hot weather can damage crops during both the early growth time when the olive trees flower, as well as mid to late summer when the fruit (olives) ripen. This damage reduces both the overall yield of the crop, as well as the quality of the final product.

During the high summer temperatures of 2022, olive oil producing countries in western Europe and north Africa have suffered a decline in yields, however growers in the Middle East have reported bumper crops, mainly due to timely rainfall as well as mild spring and late autumn temperatures.

Turkey has seen a dramatic increase in production, reaching a 400,000 ton harvest, whereas Spain experienced its lowest harvest for ten years. Producers in Greece, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria have experienced higher than average yields, whereas those producers in Algeria, France, Italy, Morocco, Portugal and Tunisia have faced poorer than average harvests. It is not fully understood if last year’s production was simply an anomaly, or the start of a pattern, however it is known that overall temperature rises are affecting the olive industry overall.

Understanding the Weather

Having advanced warning of the impending climate during the year can help growers calculate when flowering might occur, and hence when the final crop will be eventually ready for harvest. Any reduction in the overall yield can be calculated at an early stage to help growers take any financial or agricultural mitigating measures. For example, in the short term, growing patterns can be modified, and in the long term, new irrigation systems can be installed to prevent water stress. Other measures that can be adopted through the knowledge of historic weather information can include:

Changing to growing more resilient varieties of olives; Intercropping techniques, where different species are grown at the same time on the same area of land; Conservation of soil health to maintain or improve water retention; Move the olive orchards all together, including to central Europe, New Zealand and California.

How OpenWeather can help

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The UK Olive Oil industry

Although the UK may not be as world renowned as Spain for its olive oil production, there is a slowly developing enclave in the south of the country, located in Kent - known as the ‘garden of England’. Specific varieties of trees have been planted based on their resilience to the cold, as well as other aspects such as oil content, distinct flavors and resistance to disease. The varieties of olive trees include Frantoio, Picholine and Pendolino.

From the perspective of the weather, the biggest threat to olive trees in the south of the UK is not precipitation or temperature (although these are important), but wind speeds. Being located close to the cliffs and sea, the localized sea weather breezes can cause damage to trees.

Although the UK olive oil industry is not as well established as their wine, and is to a certain degree still at the experimentation stage, with increasing global temperatures and shifting production, we may well see UK produced olive oil on our supermarket shelves soon.

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